Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson returns Thursday night for what he called a “do-or-die” situation for the Ravens, although the same might be said for the coach of his opponent.
The 2-5 Ravens are only a half-game ahead of the 2-6 Miami Dolphins in the AFC, but the teams enter the start of Week 9 in the NFL in strangely different circumstances.
Baltimore is only two games behind Pittsburgh and the Ravens are actually favored to win the AFC North. By contrast, the Dolphins are four games back of New England, 3 1/2 behind Buffalo and coach Mike McDaniel may be on a week-to-week basis with his job security.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Ravens are a consensus 7.5-point favorite. The line moved as high as 8.0 points at BetMGM, where it had settled back at 7.5 as of Monday afternoon with Baltimore backed by 86% of the spread-line bets.
The public is ironically more split on the moneyline. The Dolphins opened at +280 but have moved to +350 while attracting 74% of the total bets. The Ravens have shifted from -345 to -450 while being backed by 58% of the money.
The 51.5 total points line has seen the Over draw one-sided action with 61% of the bets and 92% of the money. Baltimore is tied for the third-worst in the NFL in allowing an average of 30.0 points per game this season.
PROP PICKS
–Jackson 25+ Rushing Yards (-286 at DraftKings): There is a lot to weigh in considering Jackson-related prop bets this week. While he has rushed for 35+ yards in three of four games, he’s also returning from a three-game absence. Then again, he returned to practice last week only for the Ravens to play it cautiously and give his hamstring another four days to heal before returning to play. Jackson insists he won’t be thinking about the hammy come game time, and this has been the most popular prop at the book. Those looking for bigger potential payouts can look at Jackson rushing for 40+ (+103), 50+ (+179) and 60+ (+288).
–Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-130 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular player prop at BetMGM. While Achane is still averaging 5.0 yards per carry he has lost some of his workload to Ollie Gordon II. Achane’s 18 carries last Sunday marked only the second time in eight games he has had more than 16 this season.
INSIDE EDGE
The Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle has eight first-read targets in the red zone this season, tied for third-most among NFL wide receivers, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine. He has reached the end zone in four of eight games thus far, and has averaged 6.74 targets overall in four games since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury.
THE NEWS
Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only four teams have made the playoffs following 1-5 starts to the season.
A South Florida native, Jackson will play for the first time since suffering a hamstring injury on Sept. 28 against Kansas City. The Ravens have started two different quarterbacks in his three-game absence — Cooper Rush in two losses and Tyler Huntley in the victory on Sunday.
But a preseason Super Bowl favorite of many has struggled for the most part without him.
“I feel very confident about it,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said this week. “We’ll expect him to be out there Thursday night.”
Jackson, who practiced fully on Tuesday, had a career-high 71.6% completion percentage during his four starts this season. The two-time NFL MVP has thrown for 869 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception while rushing for 166 yards and a touchdown.
The Ravens were averaging 37 points per game during Jackson’s first three starts this season. In Rush’s two starts against Houston and the L.A. Rams, Baltimore mustered 13 combined points.
Last week, Baltimore found some rhythm with Huntley at helm as he completed 17 of 22 passes for 186 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, and also ran for 53 yards on eight attempts.
The Dolphins were in an even bigger hole after a 1-6 start but delivered a remarkably better performance last week during a 34-10 road victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
Their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t returning from injury, but he delivered a return to form that Miami has been hoping to see. He threw a season-high four touchdown passes, as well as for 205 yards on 20 of 26 attempts. And all this while dealing with a swollen left eye, which Tagovailoa said has improved in the couple of days since that game.
“It’s good. I can see a lot better than I could in terms of how open my eyelid is,” Tagovailoa said this week, and said he will continue to wear a visor as he did in Sunday’s win. “The guys liked the visor.”
Miami’s defense also had its best game of the season against the run, limiting the Falcons to 45 rushing yards and standout Bijan Robinson to only 25.
INJURY REPORT
The Dolphins suffered another key injury on defense in the win and placed cornerback Storm Duck (knee) on injured reserve on Tuesday. Miami signed Ethan Robinson to the practice squad and placed fellow defensive back Kendall Sheffield on their practice squad/injured list.
For Miami, safety Ashtyn Davis (quadriceps) and tight end Julian Hill (ankle) did not practice on Tuesday. Outside linebacker Bradley Chubb (foot, shoulder) and wide receiver Dee Eskridge (shoulder) were limited but are expected to play. Safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (thumb) was also limited.
For Baltimore, every player on the 53-man roster practiced Tuesday and tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle) was the only player with limited participation.
THEY SAID IT
–“You know, we haven’t won a championship or anything else. We won a game. We won one game.” –Harbaugh, on the Ravens’ victory last Sunday.
–“I hope the success they had breeds success.” –Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver on the improvement of his unit last Sunday.
PREDICTION
Jackson’s return and having the Steelers within shouting distance is a big boost for the Ravens. Traveling on a short week is always a concern — as is Baltimore’s defense — but Miami hasn’t shown the consistency on either side of the ball to instill much confidence against a still-dangerous Ravens team. –Ravens 30, Dolphins 23
